The percentage of Ebola deaths has increased from 57%
to 74% among the people of Gabonese Republic from January 1996 to January 1997.
Magnitude
From January to April of the
year 1996, there was an outbreak of Ebola Zaire in the Mayibout area of the
Gabonese Republic. It was found that there were 19 original cases of
Ebola-Zaire and all 19 people involved ate a dead chimpanzee they found in the
forest. The disease managed to spread to some family members of the 19 people
before control and prevention methods were in place. In the end, 37 people (17
females, 20 males) were reported to be infected with the disease. 21 (57%) of
these people were reported dead.
Later on, from July 1996 to January
1997, 60 new cases of humans infected with Ebola Zaire were reported in the
Booue area of Gabon. Some patients were transported to a hospital in
Libreville, Gabon, and cases started to pop up there as well. Soon after the
first few cases, a dead chimpanzee was found in a forest near Booue that was
confirmed to have Ebola. There were 44 reported cases of Ebola-Zaire in Booue
with 33 deaths and 14 cases in Libreville with 10 deaths. Of these people, 45
(74%) of the people infected were reported dead.
The surveillance that is available
can be used to determine what public health actions need to be taken in the
case of another outbreak. Surveillance also determines where certain health
resources are needed the most. Lastly, the surveillance available can be used
to determine how effective control and prevention methods are in several
places in Gabon. Using the surveillance above, I can see how the virus traveled
from place to place (like from forest to town and from Booue to Libreville). I
can also guess at how the humans became infected with the disease in the first
place by associating the dead chimpanzees with the outbreaks.
Direct Indicator: (1) Lab tests
used to confirm the existence of Ebola in the chimpanzees and the infected people.
(2) 57% and then 74% of people in Mayibout and Booue respectively were
confirmed dead from an Ebola infection.
Indirect Indicator: (3) A high
number of people who are in close contact with each other showing the symptoms
of a hemorrhagic fever.
One strength in the statistics I
cited is that they are very direct and clear measures of this particular
incidence of Ebola Zaire. A weakness is that the statistics available are only
from passive surveillance. That could lead to inaccuracies in the actual statistics.
References
Known Cases and
Outbreaks of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, in Chronological Order | CDC Special
Pathogens Branch. (n.d.). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Retrieved March 30, 2013, from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpages/dispages/ebola/ebolatable.htm
Waterman, T.
(n.d.). Ebola Zaire Outbreaks. Stanford University. Retrieved March
30, 2013, from http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/filo/eboz.html
I think this topic is a really interesting one. For your problem definition, I think it should include some statistics that compel people to read your paper. By doing this, you will show that, from the outset, there is a huge public health issue that needs attention. Also, (I'm not sure if you were able to find this anywhere on the internet), I think it would be helpful to describe the surveillance in more detail. For example, certain projects or research endeavors that public health officials sought out on (if there are any...I'm not sure). Other than these two things, I think this is a really good blog post that shows the magnitude of Ebola.
ReplyDeleteCurrent problem definition:
ReplyDeleteThe percentage of Ebola deaths has increased from 57% to 74% among the people of Gabonese Republic from January 1996 to January 1997.
Comments on problem definition:
Your problem definition is a great indication that you grasp the important concepts involved in writing one. Indeed, this is a great start to writing one.
The main issue I would like to bring to your attention is to make the problem more relevant to today. Looking at a problem that happened and was solved 16 years ago may not be the best way to approach this exercise. You would get most benefit from this if the problem you are looking at is relatable to the present.
Perhaps looking at the persistently high Ebola rates in Gabon or any other country over the last 10 years may be one way to go.
Surveillance:
As you may recall, surveillance is the ongoing, systematic collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of data regarding a health-related event for use in public health action to reduce morbidity and mortality and to improve health.
ONGOING is the key word here. Given that the issue you are discussing is already a closed case, it is not relatable to surveillance. Surveillance in the case of Ebola would involve methods that are in place today that track case of Ebola in endemic regions. What are some examples of surveillance methods run by the CDC that track new Ebola cases in Gabon? Is there an active testing and reporting system in place?
Magnitude:
You did a great job providing statistics that give the magnitude of the problem you discuss. It would be great to get statistics showing the magnitude of the Ebola problem in Gabon in more recent times.
Indicators:
The direct and indirect measures you cite are great for Ebola.
Perhaps what you indicate as an indirect measure may actually be a direct measure. People showing symptoms of hemorrhagic fever would be a direct measure.
A possible indirect measure may be people in close proximity to the sick (without symptoms)